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Most people agree the economic dip is temporary, and that eventually the economy will rebound, and head back in a positive direction. No one really knows when, or how quickly it will rebound, but almost everyone has a gut feeling about it. There are lots of ways to monitor the strength of the economy, and for the purposes of this excercise, I'd like you to consider employment, orders, production and sales. Here is the question: As of July 3rd, 2009, where is the American economy? Are we still on the way down, as marked in position "D" and "H" on the chart, are we at the bottom now, shown as "M", or have we made it past the bottom and are on our way up, as marked "R" and "V" on the chart?
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I honestly believe we are screwed. The federal government is in an insane amount of debt and barely even plays lip
service to trying to get out of it. The economy right now is fucked because of all the people and companies that spent
themselves into too much debt and now can't recover. I would have confidence except for the fact that no one seems
interested in not being in debt. |
The US needs to stop spending such insane amounts on military and switch it over to fixing healthcare and education
instead. Also raise taxes, the rates in the US are very low and people can afford it if the cost of health care and
education goes way down. |
The country is screwed. We need to start over. |
If we can convince everyone that the economy is at "R" then market confidence will return & it actually *will* return
to "R".
Pirates can solve this crisis yet. |
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The negative feedback between employers loosing jobs such that the money spend by consumers drags down further
complanies is just starting to kick in |
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I don't think Americans' have learned our lesson yet, so it may happen again. |
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"Yes we can" saddle our great grandchildren with trillions of dollars of debt for failed social experimentation and
government acquisition of free market businesses. Airlines are 'too big to fail' too... what's next, Aeroflot II? |
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Hovercraft |
If the Builderberg Group does what they say, the stock market is going to go up to about 9000 and then crash like it
never did before. Check out Alex Jones for some crazy stuff, see how it REALLY is! |
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More waves of mortgage defaults will occur as ARMs readjust. Increased goverment borrowing and spending is putting
additional burden on the economy without provding significant relief. |
I'm an American living in the UK.
I think the economy is going through a necessary adjustment. So much of the world's perceived wealth was illusory,
tied up in investment vehicles that contributed no value to global productivity but just shuffled around money on paper.
I think we'll find our feet again soon. |
It ain't over yet. |
There are a lot of scary economic indicators the regular news doesn't mention. Do an internet search for total
unemployment which is far higher than the 9.5 official rate. Remember underemployed and those who have fallen off the
rolls aren't even counted. Here's hoping I'm wrong. |
I don't even agree that things will get better soon. Printing more money and bailing out companies doesn't solve the
problems, it just delays them. I guess the worst is still ahead of us (although it might take some time). O_o |
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I want my money back! |
I don't think the market will break below the early March lows, but the fundamentals of the economy still do not look
very rosy. We will have to wait and see what happens in the next few weeks/months. |
I don't think the market will break below the early March lows, but the fundamentals of the economy still do not look
very rosy. We will have to wait and see what happens in the next few weeks/months. |
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we're slightly before M |
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They are still building new bank branches and retail strip locations around here like its 1999, so we must be about to
trend back up. |
i think that the more we think about how bad the economy is, the worse it is going to get. Once we get a foothold on the
positive aspects of our economy, we should inevitably start climbing back. (from a non-economist in Minneapolis, MN)
Cool site by the way, keep it up! ~Joe |
not quite all the way to r, about m.8 |
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waiting for the big ripple effect |
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I can't imagine it getting much worse. |
I think we're coming back strong and Rob rules. |
Injection of government money effectively stretches the curve; the dip is more gradual but lasts much longer. Look at
our recovery time coming out of the Great Depression compared to other world powers who didn't have the New Deal. |
I think we are over the lowest point in our economy. Could only get better from now. Right? |
Japan decided, when it went through a financial crisis in the late 80s caused by the popping of a real estate bubble, to
spend money like mad and never let anyone go bankrupt. Result? Twenty years of no growth. |
Just a gut feeling. |
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im hoping angie and brad come adopt *me* soon. |
Until we are able to audit the Federal Reserve and bring forth the globalists agenda of world domination, our economy
will continue to plummet and will never even make it M. Dead serious on this. |
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We're still going down. |
The rate of increase in unemployment has declined. |
Seems like it might be picking up |
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With Obama turning this country into a socialist state I dont really think there is an R and V. If we keep heading in
the direction the president has been leading us for the last 6 months, we'll bottom out at M and stay there like good
sheep. |
solely based on the company I work for. Though I think this "M plateau" may be artificial. Multiple "fire sales"
generated a swell in orders, thus steadying the "y" variable. Actual profit maybe questionable. |
We suck, will continue to suck, and won't stop sucking for some time. If we do get out of this "suckage" we will just
do it all again, but even worse since nobody seems to learn anything nowadays. |
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I picked M, but I think (hope) that we are now somewhere between M & R on the chart. |
Cockeyed.com rocks |
Consumer confidence not lowest yet. Beotch. |
If we're careful, we are at H. Things will continue to get worse for a while but there's a potential for things to
level out sooner rather than later. If we don't do so well, we're far more likely to be at D and we may never recover. |
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With Obama spending like a drunken sailor, America will be paying for decades. The party has just begun. |
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One nation, under debt, with fast food & caffeine for all. |
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With the current endless spending by the president and congress, not to mention cap and trade and health care reform,
the economy is guaranteed to go down due to the fact that business and consumers will have less money to spend. |
I hope its at D. Im in the repo business and I WANT CARS.
Never Go Swimmen with Women From Yemen. |
Not being American, I'm basing this on my impression of the world economy. There will be a little more of a drop, then
people will realise how cheap shares have become and start buying again. This will reintroduce capital in business,
increasing confidence, increasing orders, increasing sales, increasing production, increasing employment, however it
will be a slow growth |
While believe that the American economy is close to the bottom, I also think that house prices may continue to fall for
years to come |
Moar Dots!!! |
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In the US, real estate value will drop at least an additional 20%. Commodity prices (especially oil) will surge every
time the US economy appears to be healing.
The US economy in its current state (with its current rules) is like a boat with a giant hole in the hull. And instead
of fixing the hole, the US just tries to bail faster.
In 20 years, the worlds production of oil will be half of todays oil production. Starting in 2010 certain key oil
fields wild be spent and the world oil production curve will start its free fall.
I predict: stagnation, cutbacks, and slow decay. Eventually I see hyper inflation and a descent into an economy that
resembles current day Argentina and Russia circa 1992.
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they just want you to think it's bad so they can spend money like the stimulus bill that was supposed to create jobs
but instead just funded senator pet projects that have nothing to do with creating jobs |
I picked "R," but that may just be wishful thinking. I'm unemployed. |
See you on the way up! |
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My country is calling you gay |
I'm still waiting for the Dust Bowl 2.0 to come before we hit rock bottom. (No pun intended.) |
M will hit for a while and turn into another D. Why work when you can get a fat handout from the Gov'ment on someone
elses dime. |
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I picked R, because my name starts with R. |
Can anyone tell why DHMRV? |
its rampage time. motherfucking rampage time to be exact. therefore, we are at point M. |
It's past a peak that coincided with the introduction of the I-Phone. It will decline steadily from there. |
Things are still getting worse. |
It can't improve as long as it looks like there is no end to increased government interference in private business. |
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Tis bad, but not as bad as ours! |
You ain't seen nuthin yet! |
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God tells me he can get me out of this mess, but he's pretty sure you're fucked. |
NO way are we at the bottom yet. |
I'm running in 2012! Vote for Zombie Regan! |
Socialism does not work. |
@Stefan from a guy not even living/from the us, how the hell do you know what needs to be fixed?
"The US needs to stop spending such insane amounts on military and switch it over to fixing healthcare and education
instead."
My heath care is great, because i pay for it, i EARN it.
Education can be blamed on the teachers; fucking unions ruin everything, demanding more and more. |
I uh, believe, um, that the economy, uh... where's my teleprompter? |
I don't believe that the economy will recover as long as we haven't found an alternative source of energy that's as
effective and as cheap as oil was. |
I don't have a clue what I'm doing here at the White House. |
I am unemployed, but not willfully, as is my partner. This makes me think we are totally screwed. Which makes me sad
because I've never even had a credit card or a mortgage. This isn't my fault! But I also think that we can't get any
screweder (yay naivete!) |
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Obama will run the economy into the ground until people are tired of it and vote the republicans back in who will in
turn build the economy back up on the backs of the poor until people are tired of it and vote the liberal tax and
spenders back in and they will run the economy back into the ground until people get tired of it and vote the
republicans back in and so on til infinity |
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I believe we are still handing down. |
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What do D,H,M,R and V stand for? |
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Problems? I see no problems. |
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Well, maybe O or P if I understand the labeling. |
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Companies that have been getting by relying on unlimited credit and consumers appetite for crap have been put out of
business but solid companies are doing well. |
Get rid of Income Tax and institute a federal sales tax so that everyone that buys anything (which is everyone,) illegal
immigrants, tax evaders, folks on welfare, are required to put back into the system.... It just makes sense |
Do we get to see a pretty graph summarizing everyone's opinions? |
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We're losing jobs, but we're losing jobs more slowly! The rate will keep going down by half each month until it gets
to zero. |
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I think the downturn is slowing but hasn't plateaued yet. Though of course I won't consider the economy back until
I'm making well into the six figures, so it could take decades. |
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"F" is for Effed. We are so "Effed". We haven't seen "D" yet. |
being from Michigan, I do not feel we have hit the worst as of yet. |
Here in Texas, we are weathering the mess. The economy is not "great", but doing pretty good thanks to low taxes and
very little government involvement. It is very humorous to set back and watch the current administration and congress
tell us that the worst is over, over and over again only to see things get worse as they push for more and more spending
and regulation. |
I was unemployed for nearly 8 months and finally got a shitty job with no benefits that pays a fraction of what I made
before....but I am grateful for it. I want to believe that things are picking up. |
Djibouti, Djibouti |
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no comment needed. |
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The problem that no one knows how long M will be. |
M for Mohammed! you infidels! |
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We're screwed... |
This aint a quick thing, it's going to take a long time to stabilize. Japan had a similar problem in 1990, it was about
a 12-15 year recovery.
It's going to get painful, and it hasn't even started.
Yes, there will be some local ups over weeks or even months, but the downtrend can't be fought.
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Bork Bork Bork! |
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I think we hit point M a couple months ago, so therefore we should at least be on R by now. |
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Things will continue downhill until at least 2010... or until they find Southern Ireland. |
The federal "green" oversight of home sales and continuing lack of small business credit is going to make this a much
longer and deeper financial depression than anyone of note is willing to admit. |
If you can afford pants, you're doing pretty well. Next year, you might not be so lucky. |
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There are a few more (major) financial shoes to drop before we even see a glimpse of the fabled 'M' on the 'ol
inverted bell curve of doom. |
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It seems like the stock market is starting to improve, so other factors should start to improve soon as well. |
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Tax! Spend! BWAHAHAHAHAHA! |
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I'm concerned that we haven't yet hit the "bottom. It seems that there will be more bad news around the corner when
people realize that we can't keep freely financing the "big" companies |
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I'm just pissed they won't let me mess with the money anymore. |
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We are not amused. |
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http://lh4.ggpht.com/_COsjOIxX8ws/SZ8aZIMcnRI/AAAAAAAAB0M/G99pERhhrdQ/National-Debt-Graph.png?imgmax=800 |
It's so bad that I printed out your chart and ate it for lunch . . . |
How's that "Hope & Change" working for you? |
Yeah! That Obama! He sunk this great nation, starting on January 20, 2009, when he was sworn in. Things have been crap
since 3pm that day! Before that, everything was awesome and everyone had health insurance and everyone's house was
worth $400K and the stock market was going like gangbusters and GM was thriving and gas was free and the military was
free and New Orleans was PERFECT. |
I'm with Evil Jim. We're in R, I swear. Believe!
ARRRRRRRGH! |
I think we'll turn around soon, but we're not quite at the bottom yet. |
There are still a lot of mortages that won't adjust until 2011(ish). We're going to peak then. |
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Interesting that you use the Country dropdown instead of the State dropdown in a survey about the American economy. |
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I'm afraid we'll be stuck in this downward trend for a while until businesses see some incentive to invest and hire.
The government can't spend us out of a recession...it just doesn't work that way. The more money they print to cover
their spending, the less the dollar is worth and the deeper this recession will get. Hang on. It's going to be a
bumpy ride until we see some tax cuts. |
We've got a long way to go before hitting bottom. |
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m |
I can't stand the Dutch. |
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On its way to M. Many people are learning the benefits of NOT LIVING ON DEBT, not HAVING 2 own or lease a BMW/Mercedes
and NOT having HUGE mortgages that common SENSE says you can't afford. I've always been careful with my cash. It's
made us sick for years on the east coast seeing all these fatcats driving around like they own the world when all they
own is DEBT on designer labels! |
I think we can all thank Obama for prolonging our economy in the H position |
H |
Significance of DHMRV? Not an economist, of course that may be obvious in my question. |
I'm in the oil & gas industry, we're getting new projects now, clients are finally opening up their wallets again and
getting government funding. Things are looking up, we just need to hang in there. I'm guessing this time next year all
will be well again. |
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Why is the curve upside-down? |
I predict things will start to look up, but then... Zombies. Zombies will be our final downfall. |
We are on the Rampant Road to Recovery |
andrew zimmer ate my balls |
Wheee! |
Hovercraft. |
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I see what you're getting at...M...R...V. Clearly a reference to the great Merv Griffin.
You see, Merv could be a solution to our economy. With a wave of his hand, entertainment abounds. Alas I have no idea
if Merv is alive still. Does anyone know? And can the lawnmower altering gentleman in Namibia confirm my suspicion
that, like Hasselhoff in Germany, Merv is a god in Africa? |
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Are you the gatekeeper? |
I am from the happiest country in the world. Who cares? |
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We're not quite at the bottom yet, but we're not too far off, methinks. Somewhere between H and M. Sniffle. |
MISSIONARY POSITION YEA! |
Unfortunately this ride has yet to reach rock bottom but I'm hardly surprised to see most people think we're at R. The
butterfly flapped its wings in New York and the rest is history. I think it will be another 6-12 months before we reach
M, then an equal time before we're firmly back to R territory. Reaching V may be 2-5 years or more after that. |
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Bow before your corporate masters america! |
Bow before your corporate masters america! |
I would have said H last Fall, but since then, the government has quadrupled our deficit and made things much worse.
Unemployment is 16% when you include people who gave up looking were forced into part-time jobs. And soon, we'll have
big-time inflation, international rejection of the dollar, and massive unfunded pension liabilities. Woo-hoo! |
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Private companies keep cutting back and back, laying off and spending less. Meanwhile the lunatics in Washington keep
proposing more spending paid for with borrowing from foreign countries, printing more money, and saddling our
descendants with debt for generations. I fear the worst! |
Ach! Light them wee chil'ren's clothes on fire and spin them around on a bloody rope.
Wait, is this the correct poll? Where's me scotch?!? |
But I may be a bit too optimistic... |
The way Obama is spending, we're still going down! He spends money like a college girl in a mall, and he isn't
showing signs of slowing down! Why are we spending money on stupid things, like "Women's Issues" overseas when we
can't even balance our budget? No wonder China is laughing at the US dollar! |
I think you should flip your Y axis so the curve forms a frown instead of a smile. That would better represent the state
of our economy. |
Tip of the iceberg, tip of the iceberg |
Dirty Harry Movies-- Righteously Vicious |
The economic dip doesn't always look like a meniscus or a happy fucking smiley-- the graphic should have looked like an
asshole with cling-on's at various distances from the anus. Right now we'd be the closest turdbit-- the one that's
stuck to both buttcheeks. |
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You have much further to go, your consumption is way up, but not on goods which have any value added in American
economic zones.
Your manufacturing production remains way down, with incredibly high cost of labour and labour support.
You have more over-leveraged loans yet to reset.
Your high-tech manufacturing is outsourced.
Your military is insane. Personal healthcare costs cripple. |
I meant H dammit. |
I'm scared. People are talking about an end in sight, but all the tax revenues keep falling short of forecasts... |
I think we are still on the way down, especially the way Obama is spending (wasting) money... |
The economy needs more waffles. NOT ENOUGH WAFFLES! |
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I want seafood for breakfast! |
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We still haven't found the bottom. A stimulus based on massive amounts of debt will not last. In addition to debt
problems, I believe we are going to see inflation problems very soon.
No matter how unpersonable he may be, and I hate to say it, Peter Schiff is likely right... this is only the beginning. |
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The Swiss think we are just coming out of the bottom! |
This will be long term. Like Japan. |
(I wanted to choose "Kingdom of Talossa" from the Country list, but it was overlooked.) |
BOOOOBS! |
Don't H-ing believe it! I think the dots on the curve in real life are not so equally proportioned through time. |
Seattle...
I think we have a little further down to go |
We're not even starting to level out yet. The housing market may be stabilizing, but that's only a small part of
what's keeping us in this mess. Until we stop giving money to people we know can't pay it back, and stop giving money
to companies who completely f&*#ed up, and STOP THROWING MONEY WE DON'T HAVE around, we won't come out of this. Let's
return to the gold standard. Ban the Fed. |
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Employment in New Mexico is slow, but it didn't slow down as much relative to other places due to the normal high
levels of unemployed people. Sale of big ticket items are not going up here yet, but consumer spending overall has
increased over the past few months. The things that are supposed to signal improvement aren't, but things that aren't
supposed to improve yet are. That why its Q |
cause there is more that you havent found out about... ahahahahah (evil laughter) |
We have the option to have a recession within the recession if those losers don't stop trying to monkey with the
economy just so they can pass a new "raw" deal that would make FDR blush.
Also, it's time to drum out Barney Frank from congress and put his ex over at Fanny in jail. |
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I like to eat my poop. Also, I am dead. |
but what do I know, I teach English in a foreign country, so long as I get my roubles and vodka every two weeks, I'm
happy :) |
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On our way up as soon as Matt Lauer says so. |
As long as money and the bottom line is more important than life in general, as long as elites view non-elites as
'unwashed masses' or 'useless eaters' things will always be H, M, or R. As someone already said, 'rubles and
vodka' in some form, is about all we have to look forward to unless the status quo is changed radically. We need to
look at gross domestic happiness way more than GDP. |
with socialized medicine coming, the point I chose will reverse course soon |
Once the dead start rising and craving our brains, things will only get worse. |
Confidence is the trick. |
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The economy is an L and we are on the bottom |
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But I'm still doing fine. |
This is only the beginning. We had a really hard time under Jimmy Carter and he makes Obama look like he's an
upstanding, responsible spender! Only 15% of the "stimulus" money has been spent so far. When the remaining 85% come
due in 2010 and 2011 -- look out! Massive inflation will be only one of the big time side effects. |
The economy may be improving, but life for the common person will still continue to worsen for a while. |
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I believe in what Obama said - give the current stimulus time to seep into the economy. |
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S for screwed |
M is a LOT lower than you think. R and V may not exist, depending on how much money congress can print. |
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With the increasing unemployment, I think we are going to see a second round of defaults. |
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I think the reality is we're closer to R, but companies are continuing to behave in a paranoid way to preserve profit
gains by squeezing workers. The recovery can't come until the logjam breaks - that is, until companies realize they
can't get any more blood from existing workers and consider hiring more. |
It will get worse. |
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[link=http://kcbnpoajqxoz.com/]kcbnpoajqxoz[/link], http://bpbkejpxelqt.com/ |
woo hoo - on the comeback! |
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AUSTRALIA ROX WOO
WE DONT HAVE A RECESSION SUCKAZZZ IN AMERICA
HAHA YOU LOST YOUR HOUSE |
AUSTRALIA ROX WOO
WE DONT HAVE A RECESSION SUCKAZZZ IN AMERICA
HAHA YOU LOST YOUR HOUSE |
The government can only hold up the economy for so long until they've taxed all the rich into the poor.
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... We're not trying to trade wheelbarrows full of cash for one lousy loaf of weevil filled bread, yet. Still sinking. |
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July 3, 2009
I'd like your opinion on the state of the American Economy. On the right is a chart, with a red line illustrating the strength of the American economy.